With the United Soccer League's recent announcement regarding promotion and relegation implementation, understanding the behavior of American soccer fans becomes crucial. This report analyzes the evolution of the American fanbase of the English Premier League from 2020 to 2024, examining trends in fan growth, correlations with league performance, and conducting detailed case studies of three notable teams.
The study encompasses 25 teams across the Premier League and English Football League pyramid, providing insight into how American soccer fans engage with English soccer and how team performance impacts international following. The purpose is to gauge whether the threat of relegation, dream of promotion, or prolonged stability will influence American fan support in the future.
Key Findings
- Total Market Growth: American Premier League fanbase expanded by 62.3% from 2020-2024, growing from 18.6 million to 30.2 million fans
- Growth Pattern: Peak expansion occurred in 2022 (+35.0%), followed by stabilization and the first decline in 2024 (-1.0%)
- Performance Correlation: Strong negative correlation (-0.676) between league position and fanbase size, indicating American fans strongly favor successful teams
- Market Concentration: “Big 6” teams dominate with average fan bases of 3.8 million vs. 245k for mid-tier teams
- Notable Performers: Newcastle United achieved extraordinary growth of 970% following ownership change, while relegated teams like Leeds United and Sheffield United suffered severe losses
Data Analysis
Overall League Trends
The overall position-fanbase correlation of (-0.676) masks significant variation across different team categories:
Elite Tier Dynamics: Within the Big 6, there is virtually no correlation (-0.031) between position and fanbase size. Manchester United's massive fanbase (8.5M on average) despite inconsistent performance (4.4 average league position) exemplifies how brand power can transcend recent results.
Mid-Tier Paradox: Teams in the 11-14th position range show a moderately positive correlation (+0.383), meaning established clubs with historic Premier League status retain fans despite poor performance, while newly promoted teams struggle to gain support.
Bottom Tier Reality: Teams averaging 15th position or lower show the strongest correlation (+0.607), suggesting American fans quickly abandon teams that consistently struggle or face relegation.
Performance Tier Averages
Top Tier (Positions 1-6): 6 teams
- Average fanbase: 3.77m
- Average growth: 64.3%
Mid Tier (Positions 7-14): 8 teams
- Average fanbase: 245k
- Average growth: 7.4%
Bottom Tier (Positions 15+): 4 teams
- Average fanbase: 201k
- Average growth: -25.1%
Special Case Studies
Newcastle United: The Saudi Effect
Newcastle United represents the most dramatic fanbase transformation, achieving 970% growth following their 2021 ownership change. The Saudi ownership created immediate interest, with American fans viewing it as a promise of future success. Each improvement in league position corresponded with accelerated fan growth, with 2023 seeing the largest absolute increase (+372k fans) coinciding with Champions League qualification.
|
Year |
Position |
Fans(k) |
YoY Change |
YoY % |
Key Moments |
|
2020 |
13th |
50 |
- |
- |
Pre-takeover baseline |
|
2021 |
12th |
111 |
+61 |
+122.0% |
Saudi ownership takeover |
|
2022 |
11th |
237 |
+126 |
+113.5% |
Major signings, improved performance |
|
2023 |
4th |
609 |
+372 |
+157.0% |
Champions League qualification |
|
2024 |
7th |
535 |
-74 |
-12.1% |
Champions League campaign and another top-half finish |
Leeds United: The Struggles of Relegation
As a club with three English titles, Leeds’s return to the Premier League captured global attention under Marcelo Bielsa's aggressive playing style. However, following relegation in 2023, Leeds demonstrate how poor performance can negatively impact American fanbase, with a 73.8% decline in fandom from peak to trough. The 2022 peak (+161.1%) showed American interest in the "Leeds story," but relegation caused a 71% fanbase collapse.
|
Year |
Position |
Fans(k) |
YoY Change |
YoY % |
Notes |
|
2020 |
21st* |
275 |
- |
- |
Promoted to Premier League for first time since 2004 |
|
2021 |
9th |
234 |
-41 |
-14.9% |
Solid first season back |
|
2022 |
17th |
611 |
+377 |
+161.1% |
Fans interested following successful campaign and in midst of tense relegation battle |
|
2023 |
19th |
177 |
-434 |
-71.0% |
Relegated to Championship |
|
2024 |
23rd |
72 |
-105 |
-59.3% |
Championship campaign, initially failed to gain promotion back to Premier League |
*Note: Position 21 indicates promoted team
Aston Villa: Volatility and Recovery
Aston Villa showcases extreme volatility in American fanbase, with dramatic swings corresponding to performance fluctuations. The team shows the highest year-over-year swings in the dataset, with strong correlation between improved performance and fanbase recovery. 2024's top 4 finish generated significant American interest, highlighting that Americans prefer success.
|
Year |
Position |
Fans(k) |
YoY Change |
YoY % |
Notes |
|
2020 |
17th |
286 |
- |
- |
Controversy surrounding their survival |
|
2021 |
11th |
20 |
-266 |
-93.0% |
Some improvement and general safety |
|
2022 |
14th |
295 |
+275 |
+1375.0% |
Lower-mid-table stability followed by Unai Emery’s appointment and significant ambition in signings |
|
2023 |
7th |
97 |
-198 |
-67.1% |
Qualification for UEFA’s Europa Conference League |
|
2024 |
4th |
423 |
+326 |
+336.1% |
Return to the Champions League |
Cross-Case Analysis
Common Patterns
- Performance Sensitivity: All teams show strong correlation between league position and fanbase changes
- Breaking Points: Relegation serves as a critical threshold for fanbase retention
- Recovery Potential: Teams can rebuild American followings through sustained performance improvements
Divergent Outcomes
- Investment vs Performance: Newcastle's ownership changes accelerated growth beyond performance improvements
- Volatility Patterns: Aston Villa shows more dramatic swings than other teams with similar positions
Possible Explanations for American Preferences
Habit: Americans have never dealt with relegation for their hometown teams. Instead, they wait for the first draft pick, which brings hope. In soccer, relegation can be detrimental and even threaten a club’s existence.
TV Coverage: Following English soccer as an American is expensive, requiring cable networks plus Peacock, Paramount Plus, and ESPN+ subscriptions. Fans may feel less inclined to continue paying if performances aren't optimal.
Market Saturation: Americans have numerous professional sports options, with seasons overlapping with the Premier League calendar, creating competition.
Conclusion
The analysis reveals a rapidly growing but increasingly sophisticated American Premier League fanbase that expanded by 62.3% over four years, reaching over 30 million fans by 2024. However, the first decline in 2024 suggests the market may be seeking new narratives.
Key Strategic Implications
The American Premier League fanbase operates as three distinct markets:
- Elite Market (Big 6): Brand-driven, relatively stable, and less performance-sensitive
- Mid-Tier Market: Performance-sensitive but legacy effects exist for established clubs
- Lower-Tier Market: Highly volatile, performance-dependent, and relegation-averse
The data suggests American Premier League fandom has evolved from casual interest to a sophisticated, multi-tier market that rewards success, punishes failure, and responds to narratives. For the USL's promotion/relegation model to succeed, it must ensure relegated teams aren't simply abandoned but are supported through compelling narratives to retain supporter attention.
Methodology
Data Collection: SBRnet's study of American soccer fans supporting foreign teams, with sample sizes ranging from 3,475 to 7,064 respondents annually. Data collected in January following each year, adjusted for ~277 million Americans aged 13 or older.
Statistical Methods: Pearson correlation coefficient used to measure effect of league position on American support. Teams are categorized by performance tiers and growth patterns for comparative analysis.
Key Assumptions: Fanbase estimates represent reasonable approximations of American support, with timing capturing fan reactions to previous season performance. Analysis limited to 5-year period with 25 teams across English soccer pyramid.
Sources
Anthropic. (2025, May). ClaudeAI (Claude Sonnet 4).
SBRnet. (2021-2025). Sports Fan Soccer Non-USA series. Retrieved from SBRnet database.